First major poll
November 12, 2007
The
first major nationwide poll has been released and the results confirm
what most analysts have been telling us. The People Power
party (PPP) and the Democrat Party appear to be far ahead of
their rivals. Since the PPP is made up
almost entirely of members of former prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra's disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, those
who carried out the coup against his government must
be a bit anxious.Should they be worried? Could the PPP actually lead the next government if yesterday's poll results stay roughly the same on December 23? Read to see how many seats the PPP might win in such a situation. Is it enough to form a government alone, (240) or more seats? If not, check out the other parties. Does it seem likely enough of them might join PPP to create a winning coalition? Do the Democrats have a better chance of attracting coalition partners?
Keep in mind that these are very rough numbers and they may not translate well into actual seats. The seats in yesterday's were apparently calculated by taking the total number of seats in the new parliament (480) and multiplying the number by the percentage the parties received in yesterday's poll. The actual election could be very different. A party might win 90 percent of the vote in several large constituencies, for example, but do very poorly in many other districts. The overall percentage of the votes might be high, but the number of seats won would not be so high. Read to see if yesterday's poll even considered the candidates running in the election or if it was simply a popularity contest among the parties as a whole.
rivals – opponents; competitors คู่แข่ง
disbanded – stopped from operating as a group; officially ended
coup (d’etat) – the seizure of power in a country by a small group of people, usually members of the armed forces รัฐประหาร
roughly – approximately ประมาณ
coalition – a government formed by two or more political parties working together พรรคร่วมรัฐบาล
apparently – according to what something appears, but possibly not the case
calculate – to use numbers to find out a total number, amount, distance, etc. คาดการณ์
constituencies – districts which elect their own representatives to parliament เขตเลือกตั้ง
candidates – people who are trying to be elected ผู้สมัคร
Democrats trail PPP, poll shows
People Power could win 180 seats, Dem 160NATTAYA CHETCHOTIROS
SURASAK GLAHAN
KULTIDA SAMABUDDHI
The People Power party (PPP) is leading its arch rival the Democrats in the first poll conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University as parties gear up their campaigns for the election.
Although the Democrat party is likely to control seats in Bangkok, it still trails the PPP, judging by results of the Suan Dusit Poll, which surveyed respondents between Nov 1 and last Saturday .
The poll suggests the PPP would win 180 House seats, followed by the Democrats with 160 seats including the lion’s share of 22 seats in Bangkok.
Chart Thai would come third with 50 seats, five seats more than Matchimathipataya. Puea Pandin would get 25 seats, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, 10 seats, and Pracharaj four members in parliament. The figures are approximate.
The poll was unveiled ahead of registration day for candidates in the 157 constituencies nationwide. The new parliament will have 400 seats from the constituency system, and another 80 from the party list.
Sukhum Chaloeysap, director of the poll centre, said his poll unit conducted the survey on the popularity of parties in all constituencies nationwide.
The PPP represents key figures from Thai Rak Thai party, dissolved for election fraud in April last year.
The Suan Dusit poll results showed the Democrats get more seats nationwide than the party says it expects to win, but fewer in Bangkok.
Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has predicted the party will win about 150 of 480 seats in the election. In Bangkok where 36 seats are in contest, Mr Abhisit expects to win 26 seats.
Based on its results, the poll says the PPP is likely to win 12 seats in the capital. The rest will be divided between Chart Thai and Matchimathipataya.
Mr Sukhum said the survey was reliable thanks to a change in which a constituency is represented by three MPs instead of one.
The old system of one MP representing a constituency made poll results uncertain because two leading candidates ran neck and neck for only one seat in a constituency.
trail – (in a race or election) to be behind
arch rival – main competitor คู่ปรับคนสำคัญ
gear up – to prepare to do something เตรียมการ
campaign – a series of planned activities that are intended to achieve a particular aim, in this case, winning votes in an election การรณรงค์หาเสียงเลือกตั้ง
respondents – people who answer questions, especially in a survey ผู้ที่ถูกสัมภาษณ์ หรือ ตอบแบบสอบถาม
lion’s share – the largest or best part of something ส่วนที่ใหญ่ที่สุด
unveiled – showed or introduced for the first time เปิดเผยเป็นครั้งแรก
party-list (proportional representation) – a system that gives each party in an election a number of seats in relation to the number of votes its candidates receive การเลือกตั้งระบบสัดส่วน
dissolved – officially ended ถูกยุบ
reliable – likely to be correct or true น่าเชื่อถือ
neck and neck – (of a race or an election) extremely close; having very little difference between those involved เฉือนกันอย่างหวุดหวิด (คะแนนเลือกตั้ง)
The Democrats and Puea Pandin unveiled their candidates for Bangkok on Saturday.
The PPP unveiled candidates yesterday for all 36 city constituencies. More than half of the PPP candidates were former members of parliament, according to Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan.
Contender Sutha Chunsang, who is in charge of campaign strategy for the city, said the party would offer new development projects for Bangkok such as nine mass-transit rail routes.
Predicting the outcome in the city was difficult, since history showed that Bangkok voters could change their minds overnight.
Chart Thai party will today unveil its Bangkok contenders as registrations open for constituency candidates. Among prominent figures running under the party’s banner is an ex-monk Mano Laohavanich, formerly known as Phra Mettanando, who will compete in constituency 1.
Mr Mano left the monkhood after 25 years in August after being advised by foreign religious experts that entering politics will make his dream to reform Buddhism in Thailand come true.
‘‘I can’t reform Buddhism by being a monk. I have to be a politician to push for religious reform policy,’’ he said.
Mr Mano first considered joining the Democrats, but later dropped the idea.
‘‘I will be forgotten if I run for the Democrats because they already have too many outstanding candidates.’’ Mr Mano said he chose Chart Thai because of its policy on women, children and social development which would provide a platform for his religious work.
gauge – to measure เพื่อวัดระดับ (ความนิยม)
strategy – a plan that is intended to achieve a particular purpose นโยบาย
mass-transit – the system of business, trains, etc. that large numbers of people use to get from one place to another การขนส่งมวลชน
change their minds overnight – change their minds very quickly, e.g. from one day to the next เปลี่ยนใจชั่วข้ามคืน
contenders – people who take part in a competition, in this case, an election ผู้แข่งขัน
prominent figures – well-known people ผู้ที่มีชื่อเสียง หรือ เป็นที่รู้จักอย่างดี
under the party’s banner – as representatives of the party เป็นตัวแทนของพรรค
outstanding – extremely good; excellent ยอดเยี่ยม
platform – an opportunity โอกาส