When is a poll not a poll?
November 28, 2007
At 75, Chart Thai leader Banharn Silpa-archa, whose party has actually done quite well in opinion polls, shows Lumpini park visitors he is still fit by working out with light dumbbells, a weights machine and a Chinese-style sword exercise. The Suphan Buri politician was hoping that yesterday’s demonstration would impress onlookers and convince them to vote for his party’s candidates in Bangkok. KOSOL NAKACHOL
People often wonder how a poll that questions only a few hundred or a few thousand voters can accurately reflect the opinions of millions of voters around the country. Indeed, Matchimathipataya leader, Prachai Leophairatana, complained recently that you would need to question 700,000 voters to get an accurate assessment. He is wrong, of course, and I imagine his statement was made out of frustration after his party has done quite poorly in the first set of polls released so far.
Serious polling organisations can get quite accurate readings of public opinion because they are very careful to choose a representative sample. That means that each person in the target group, e.g. eligible voters, in an area has an equal chance of being surveyed. They are also very careful that the questions they ask do not encourage the respondents to answer one way or another. (To get a better idea of what I mean by this, look at today's teaching suggestions.)
Polls that are not so careful about their methodology can be very misleading or, worse yet, they can be intentionally misleading, designed to favour a particular political party or candidate. That is what some people suspect about the recent poll attributed to the Special Branch of the police. But was it actually a poll? Read the story to find out. Even if it wasn't, can its results be trusted? Watch to see if its results are similar to those of serious polls like the ones conducted by Suan Dusit or ABAC.
candidates – people are trying to win elected positions ผู้สมัคร
accurately – correct and true in every detail อย่างถูกต้องแม่นยำ
reflect – to show or be the sign of the nature of something or someone’s attitudes or feelings สะท้อน (ความคิดเห็น)
asessment – an opinion or a judgment about someone or something that has been thought about very carefully การประเมิณผล
frustration – a feeling of being annoyed or impatient because you cannot do or get what you want ความขุ่นเคืองใจ
released – made known to the public เผยแพร่สู่สาธารณะ
representative sample – a number of people or things taken from a larger group in which each person or thing in the larger group has an equal chance of being chosen กลุ่มตัวอย่างที่ถูกเลือกมาใช้ในการทำการสำรวจ
eligible – able to do or have something because you have the right qualifications, are the right age, etc. มีสิทธิ
surveyed – asked questions in an investigation into the opinions or behaviour of a group of people ถูกสำรวจความคิดเห็น
respondents – people who answer questions in a survey or poll ผู้ตอบแบบสอบถาม
methodology – a set of methods and principles used to perform a particular activity ระเบีบยวิธีการปฏิบัติ ในที่นี้หมายถึง ระเบียบวิธีการทำการสำรวจ
misleading – giving the wrong idea or impression and making you believe something that is not true ชี้นำไปในทางที่ผิด
intentionally – done deliberately; done on purpose อย่างจงใจ อย่างตั้งใจ
suspect – to have the idea that something is probably true or likely to happen, but without having definite proof สงสัย
attributed – said or believed that someone is responsible for doing something เชื่อว่ามี อ้างว่ามี
Police ‘assessment’ not a poll
Special Branch just doing its assigned jobPOST REPORTERS
The Royal Thai Police Office has admitted the Special Branch made an assessment of potential areas of election conflict, but denied the results posted on some websites constituted an opinion poll.
Conducting an opinion survey would have landed the branch in hot water with the Election Commission (EC).
The Special Branch was tasked with finding out information about poll candidates in each constituency and assessing the extent of the rivalry between them, spokesman Pol Lt-Gen Pongsapat Pongcharoen said yesterday.
The information would be used to prepare measures to ensure the candidates’ safety in highly-competitive areas. That was its sole purpose, he said.
‘‘There is a need to tighten security in areas where competition between candidates is highly charged,’’ he said.
It was the assigned task of the Special Branch to make this assessment in the run-up to every general election.
Many eyebrows were raised when the result of what appeared to be an opinion poll by the Special Branch became public information. It was found on several news websites on Monday.
The information, which generated heavy criticism, indicated that the People Power party (PPP) would capture 219 seats in the lower house, far ahead of the Democrats’ projected 121 seats.
The release of the report came on the heels of the EC’s warning of legal consequences for pollsters releasing surveys that do not meet standards or are intended to favour a particular party.
Pol Lt-Gen Pongsapat confirmed the Special Branch was not legally authorised to conduct opinion polls.
The objective of the assessment had been misconstrued. It was incorrect to label the information a survey.
The agency needed to get an overview of how fiercely contested each constituency is, because it reflects the level of protection police must provide. The assessment would continue.
potential – possible; that can develop into something or be developed in the future มีความเป็นไปได้
conflict – a situation in which people, groups or countries are involved in a serious disagreement or argument ความขัดแย้ง
denied – said that something was not true ปฏิเสธข้อเท็จจริง
constituted – considered to be เป็นผล ประกอบขึ้นเป็น
in hot water – in trouble ตกอยู่ในความเดือดร้อน ประสบกับปัญหา
tasked with – given a particular job to do ได้รับมอบหมายภาระกิจ
constituency – a district which elects its own representatives to parliament เขตเลือกตั้ง
rivalry – a state in which two people, organisations, companies, etc. are competing for the same thing, in this case, seats in parliament การแข่งขัน ประลองระหว่างบุคคล องค์กร หรือ บริษัท ในที่นี้หมายถึง การแย่งตำแหน่งในรัฐสภา
measures – official actions done in order to achieve a particular aim มาตราการ
sole – only อย่างเดียว
charged – full of strong feelings เต็มไปด้วยอารมณ์รุนแรง
run-up – the period of time before something is scheduled to happen, in this case, an election ช่วงเวลาก่อนกำหนดการ ในที่นี้หมายถึง ช่วงเวลาก่อนการเลือกตั้ง
eyebrows were raised – showed surprise or disapproval แสดงความประหลาดใจ ความไม่พอใจ
generated – produced; created ทำให้เกิด
projected – estimated on the basis of the information available ประมาณการณ์ คาดการณ์
on the heels of – soon after หลังจากนั้นไม่นาน
consequences – results of something that has happened ผลที่่ได้ ผลเนื่องมาแต่
pollsters – people who make or ask the questions used in a poll ผู้ทำการสำรวจ หรือทำแบบสอบถาม ความคิดเห็นประชาชน
authorised – given official permission to do something ได้รับอำนาจตามกฎหมาย
misconstrued – wrongly understood ตีความผิด
label – to describe in a particular way, especially unfairly or inappropriately บอก ตราหน้า
overview – a general description, outline or understanding of something ภาพรวม
contested – competitive แข่งขัน
National police chief Pol Gen Seripisuth Temiyavej had reprimanded the Special Branch, he said.
He had ordered the source of the leak be tracked down.
The Special Branch yesterday issued a separate statement insisting it did not conduct an election survey.
Election commissioner Somchai Juengprasert said opinion polls were permitted as long as they were not intended to influence voters’ decisions.
Prime Minister’s Office Minister Thirapat Serirangsan said unofficial polls usually had some hidden agenda and they were rarely reliable. He believed they were simply a political tool.
Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday shrugged off the result of the controversial assessment and the lead it gave the PPP over the Democrats.
He said it was no cause for concern given the ambiguity over its source and the lack of proper survey methods.
Pracharaj leader Sanoh Thienthong said he believed the poll was unfair to the candidates of each party, and there might be some politicians behind the effort to make the survey.
Matchimathipataya leader Prachai Leophairatana urged the EC to investigate where opinion polls got funding from.
He said surveys must be independent and not be paid for by anyone.
Chart Thai leader Banharn Silpa-archa said the assessment was not a real pointer to the outcome of the election. It gave Chart Thai 57 seats, Matchimathipataya 17 and Pracharaj seven.
commissioner – the head of a particular police force ผู้กำกับ
reprimanded – official told something that you do not approve of their actions ตำหนิโทษ
source – a person who gives information แหล่งข่าว
leak – secret information that has been given to someone or released to the public ความลับที่ถูกนำมาเผยแพร่
hidden agenda – a secret or hidden reason for doing something that is not made known วาระซ่อนเร้น แอบแฝง
reliable – likely to be correct or true น่าเชื่อถือ
shrugged off – treated something as if it was not important เพิกเฉย ละเลย
concern – worry
ambiguity – being unclear or difficult to understand or explain คลุมเครือ ไม่ชัดเจน
funding – money for a particular purpose เงินทุน เงินสนับสนุน