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December 24, 2007

The results come in

December 24, 2007

02:50 Bangkok time

This is interesting. Banharn Silapa-archa has announced that his Chart Thai party will stick together with Puea Pandin. If those two parties were to join with the Democrats, they could have a higher total number of seats than the PPP. Is that a possibility? Well, it is certainly something to watch for in the coming hours and days. The problem with a coalition government involving these three parties and one or two smaller parties is that would have only a very small and likely uncomfortable majority.

92% of votes counted; PPP close to majority
  
(BangkokPost.com) - People Power party (PPP) continues its lead as 92 per cent of votes have been counted as of Sunday 10pm Thailand time (1500 GMT).

Unofficial results showed PPP wins 228 seats while its rival Democrat party gets 166 seats from a total of 480 seats of both constituency and party-list candidacy.

Chart Thai party wins 39 seats so far while Puea Pandin party gets 26 seats, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana wins 10 seats, Matchimathipataya has 7 seats and Pracharaj has 4 seats.

rival – competing; opposing คู่แข่ง
constituency – a district that elects its own representative to parliament เขตเลือกตั้ง
candidacy - the process of trying to win an elected postion, i.e., being candidates
party list  (proportional representation) system - a system that gives each party in an election a number of seats in relation to the number of votes its candidates receive ระบบสัดส่วน, ระบบปาร์ตี้ลิสต์

21:50 December 23, Bangkok time)

Samak declares victory

PPP leader Samak Sundaravej spoke to the press a short time ago (see story below), winning high marks from international reporters for the quality of his English. At that time, about 70 percent of the ballots had been counted. Now, with the count almost complete, the 230 total he spoke of seems to be just about right. 

Turnout was high at 71 percent, indicating that a very large proportion of the Thai population, close to 50 percent, want the PPP to form the next government. That now seems likely. The only possible hitch would seem to be if PPP candidates are hit with a large number of yellow or red cards from the Election Commission. The Democrats also did a bit better than expected with about 160 seats and they were a close second to the PPP in the party-list vote. So they could be a strong opposition force in parliament.

Samak announces he is ready to be new PM
  
(BangkokPost.com) - People Power party (PPP) leader Samak Sundaravej announced on Sunday night he is ready to become Thailand's new prime minister.

"I will be the next premier for sure," he said.

His announcement came after unofficial result showed that his party has won about 230 seats out of 480 total. About 70 per cent of votes have been counted when he spoke.

"It is a victory of people of Thailand," he told reporters.

Mr Samak, a strong supporter of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, thanked his supporters and invited other political parties to help PPP to solve national problems.

He also said Mr Thaksin called to congratulate him already, adding that the deposed premier said he is ready to return to fight criminal charges after a new government is formed.

He also thanked Election Commission for organising the election despite being pressured by many parties.

ballot – the piece of paper on which someone marks who they are voting for บัตรเลือกตั้งturnout – the number or percentage of eligible voters who vote in an election จำนวนผู้ออกมาลงคะแนน
hitch  problem
party list  (proportional representation) system - a system that gives each party in an election a number of seats in relation to the number of votes its candidates receive ระบบสัดส่วน, ระบบปาร์ตี้ลิสต์
ousted  deposed; forced out of a position of power.

Exit polling

20:20 .

The international news agencies are reporting that the PPP is winning in a landslide, very likely enough to win a majority of the seats in parliament. These are based on exit polls, however, and I notice there is a relatively significant difference between the Rajabhat Suan Dusit poll and the the ABAC poll:

A Dusit poll for Bangkok's Suan Dusit Rajabhat University forecast that PPP had won a majority of 256 seats, compared to 162 for the rival Democrat Party. However, Abac Poll of Assumption University said its survey showed PPP had won 202 seats, falling short of an outright majority, with the Democrats taking 146. (bangkokpost.com breaking news)

If the ABAC poll is accurate, there is still an outside chance of a Democrat-led government. We should know before much longer.

landslide - a very large victory
majority – more than half the total number ข้างมาก, ส่วนใหญ่
exit poll – a poll taken at or near polling stations questioning voters about how they voted — การสำรวจความคิดเห็นจากประชาชนที่เพิ่งลงคะแนนเสร็จสดๆ ร้อนๆ
rival – competing; opposing คู่แข่ง
outside chance - a very small chance

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